Current:Home > InvestHurricane Idalia's dangers explained: Will forecasters' worst fears materialize?-LoTradeCoin
Hurricane Idalia's dangers explained: Will forecasters' worst fears materialize?
View Date:2024-12-24 00:21:15
Hurricane Idalia made landfall Wednesday as one of the more powerful storms in Florida's history, reaching some of the worst case scenarios emergency officials have feared for years but avoiding others.
Idalia was forecast to be a Category 4 storm at landfall, arriving on a full moon when tides are naturally higher and at one of the most dangerous angles to the coast.
Although briefly reaching a Category 4 status as it approached the Florida coast, Idalia's winds dropped to 125 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane at landfall along the Big Bend.
The hurricane center had forecast Idalia to continue strengthening before landfall, however its barometric pressure rose quickly Wednesday morning – from 940 millibars at 6 a.m. to 949 millibars at landfall at 7:45 a.m. The lower the pressure at the center of a storm, the more destructive, so the change likely lessened the damage expected to occur from Idalia's destructive winds.
Idalia text message updates:Sign up to receive text updates on Hurricane Idalia and its aftermath
Timing of tides crucial as Idalia makes landfall
The National Hurricane Center had warned the storm surge could be higher than many single-story buildings, reaching up to 16 feet in the vulnerable Big Bend region if it arrived at high tide. And Idalia's landfall coincided with the full moon happening Wednesday night, so tides were already higher than normal.
The moon's gravitational pull on the Earth's high and low tides is strongest during full and new moons. So storm surge, which piles water on top of the tide, reaches higher levels if it arrives during a full moon.
As a hurricane approaches the coast, water that has been piled up in the center flows outward toward the shore and is blocked by the upward slope of the ocean floor. The surge is when that water level is suddenly forced upward and flows over land and into rivers. A sloping continental shelf along the Gulf of Mexico makes the coastline more vulnerable than the nation's Atlantic coast where steep slopes and a narrower continental shelf allow lower surge levels. And the angle of the Big Ben exacerbates that effect.
Ultimately however, Idalia's landfall occurred closer to low tide, so the flooding is not likely to meet the worst-case scenarios.
Even so, it was apparent by first light that the damage was devastating in many areas — just not as bad as it would have been if the surge pushed ashore when tides were highest. Major flooding occurred in locations along the coast and high water records were broken.
In Cedar Key, the National Weather Service reported a peak surge of 6.79 feet at the gauge, a new record, but lower than forecast if the storm surge arrived at high tide. The previous record – 6.1 feet – was set during Hurricane Hermine in 2016. It wasn't immediately clear how the peak water will compare to the surge forecast. It sometimes takes weather experts weeks to determine the height of the storm surge.
In Steinhatchee, closer to the point of landfall, the tide gauge peaked at 8.03 above the high water mark for the station, almost a foot above the previous record, also set during Hermine.
The next high tides near where the storm came ashore are on Wednesday afternoon.
Flooding is possible all along Idalia's path, with the National Weather Service warning of storm surge along Florida's northeast coast and through the Carolinas.
Why is the northeast Gulf Coast so vulnerable?
The contours of the Gulf of Mexico offshore in the Big Bend region, make it one of the most vulnerable locations to storm surge in the United States, wrote Jeff Masters and Bob Henson with Yale Climate Connections earlier this week. The wide continental shelf with shallow waters offshore allows water being pushed ahead of a hurricane to stack up, the pair wrote.
When Hurricane Dennis, a Category 5 storm, made landfall 150 miles to the west in 2005, the hurricane center reported it trapped a "shelf wave" of higher surge between it and the coast, pushing record high water levels into St. Marks, devastating the small community on the coast and destroying buildings that were never rebuilt.
During Hurricane Hermine, a Category 1 storm, the Gulf surged over seven feet above ground level in the region, Masters and Henson wrote.
Flooding in Charleston, South Carolina on Tuesday night was just a few inches below record flood levels, the weather service said, with much higher tides expected as Idalia arrives. Charleston was feeling the influence of the arriving full moon, as well as the offshore presence of Hurricane Franklin, said meteorologist Steven Taylor.
Storm surge fears in Tampa Bay area
For years, forecasters had feared a massive storm surge pushing into the heavily populated and vulnerable Tampa Bay area, preparing for the worst as Hurricane Ian approached last year. However, with Ian making landfall to the south, water levels dropped in Tampa Bay as Ian arrived.
The area was not as fortunate on Wednesday morning. Water levels jumped nearly five feet higher than yesterday's high tide at a gauge on Tampa Bay in St. Petersburg. Water was pushing into some of the creeks and streams around the bay, which have risen 2-3 feet.
On the Alafia River at Riverview, the surge broke a record set during Hurricane Frances in September 2004 by about 4 inches.
A spotter reported to the weather service that homes were flooding in Port Manatee, Florida.
Record flooding is forecast along the Alafia River, which flows into Tampa Bay, the weather service reported. At 6 a.m. the river level was more than 1.5 feet above flood level and expected to rise several inches above the record flood level set in 2004.
veryGood! (8)
Related
- Flurry of contract deals come as railroads, unions see Trump’s election looming over talks
- How hard will Hurricane Lee hit New England? The cold North Atlantic may decide that
- Anitta Reveals What's Holding Her Back From Having a Baby
- With Russia isolated on the world stage, Putin turns to old friend North Korea for help
- Father sought in Amber Alert killed by officer, daughter unharmed after police chase in Ohio
- Lemur on the loose! Video shows police chasing critter that escaped in Missouri
- Youngkin signs bipartisan budget that boosts tax relief and school funding in Virginia
- Judge issues interim stay of New York AG's $250M fraud suit against Trump: Sources
- John Krasinski Revealed as People's Sexiest Man Alive 2024
- GOP senators who boycotted Oregon Legislature file for reelection despite being disqualified
Ranking
- Artem Chigvintsev Returns to Dancing With the Stars Ballroom Amid Nikki Garcia Divorce
- EU faces deadline on extending Ukrainian grain ban as countries threaten to pass their own
- Casino giant Caesars Entertainment reports cyberattack; MGM Resorts says some systems still down
- Mexico's Independence Day is almost here. No, it's not on Cinco de Mayo.
- Georgia remains part of College Football Playoff bracket projection despite loss
- Josh Duhamel becomes counselor of 'big adult summer camp' with 'Buddy Games' reality show
- Recent floods heighten concerns that New England dams may not be built for climate-induced storms
- How Real Housewives Alum Jen Shah and Elizabeth Holmes Have Bonded in Prison
Recommendation
-
Tesla issues 6th Cybertruck recall this year, with over 2,400 vehicles affected
-
China welcomes Cambodian and Zambian leaders as it forges deeper ties with Global South
-
A judge must now decide if Georgia voting districts are racially discriminatory after a trial ended
-
Confirmed heat deaths in hot Arizona metro keep rising even as the weather grows milder
-
Review: 'Emilia Pérez' is the most wildly original film you'll see in 2024
-
'One assault is too many': Attorneys for South Carolina inmate raped repeatedly in jail, speak out
-
Water bead recall: 1 death, 1 injury linked to toy kits sold at Target
-
Kirkland chicken tortilla soup mistakenly labeled gluten-free, USDA warns