Who should be the NBA MVP? Making the case for the top 6 candidates

During a recent phone conversation with an NBA executive, the topic of NBA MVP arose.

The exec wanted to know why Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo wasn’t getting more love in the MVP race.

It’s a race that is seemingly a two-person contest between Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, the MVP in 2021 and 2022, and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, an All-NBA selection last season who has not won the award.

Yes, there are factors to consider beyond stats, but Antetokounmpo is having the kind of season that measures up to his MVPs in 2019 and 2020.

Let’s take a closer look at the NBA MVP race and make a case for the top candidates:

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo

2023-24 stats (entering play Tuesday night): 30.7 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 6.4 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.0 bpg, 61.6% FG, 29.6% 3PT, 66.4% FT

This season, he has the second-highest scoring average of his career, the most assists he has averaged (this should be the first time he finishes with 6.0 or more per game) and his highest shooting percentage (the first time he will finish at 60% or better). He remains a dominant force in the paint, shooting 71.7% at the rim, according to nba.com shooting charts.

It’s been a great year for Antetokounmpo, who is on pace to have the most double-doubles of his career and he has a career-best eight triple-doubles.

However … the Bucks have had a strange season. They fired first-year coach Adrian Griffin with a 30-13 record and are just 14-11 since Doc Rivers took over. Milwaukee has the league’s fifth-best record and even though it is in second place in the Eastern Conference, it is 11 games behind Boston.

MVP odds, via BetMGM: +8000

Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic

2023-24 stats: 26.1 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 9.0 apg, 1.3 spg, 58.1% FG, 35.4% 3PT, 82.6% FT

Jokic is special, and that’s on display again this season as the Nuggets try to get the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and defend their 2023 championship. There will be minimal complaints if Jokic, an offensive wizard in command of his powers, wins his third MVP in four seasons. He would join a special group of just eight other players who have won three or more MVPs: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, LeBron James, Moses Malone, Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. His triple-doubles are special – he has 10 30-point triple-doubles this season.

Just a few years ago, Jokic was not among the NBA’s 75 greatest players, and now he’s headed for top-15 all-time. Just incredible.

MVP odds: -1000 (favorite to win)

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

2023-24 stats: 30.5 ppg, 6.3 apg, 5.6 rpg, 2.1 spg, 54.1% FG, 36.7% 3PT, 87.2% FT

Despite averaging about a point less this season than he did last season, this is Gilgeous-Alexander’s best season with career highs in field goal percentage, assists, rebounds and steals. He has elevated his game, and in the process, elevated the Thunder to one of the best teams in the league. Individual success (with a jump in his game from one season to the next offensively and defensively) combined with team success makes Gilgeous-Alexander a top candidate for MVP. He is on target to become the third player (Michael Jordan, Steph Curry) to average at least 30 points, 2.1 steals and shoot 50% or better.

MVP odds: +800

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic

2023-24 stats: 34 ppg, 9.9 apg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 spg, 48.6% FG, 37.3% 3PT, 78.7% FT

Doncic leads the league in scoring, is third in triple-doubles and is having his best season with career highs in points per game, 3-point shooting percentage, assists and steals. He just set an NBA record with six consecutive 30-point triple-doubles. The Mavs are fighting for the sixth seed and a guaranteed playoff series (instead of the play-in game) and their record might be the one detractor. It’s rare but not unheard of for the MVP to come from a team that finished lower than third in its conference – Jokic won it in 2021-22 when the Nuggets were the No. 6 seed.

MVP odds: +1800

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum

2023-24 stats: 27.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.0 spg, 47.3% FG, 37.9% 3PT, 83.1% FT

Best player on the league’s best team qualifies for MVP candidacy. Tatum does so many things, offensively and defensively, at an elite level. Tatum is a major part of a team that is No. 1 offensively and No. 2 defensively with the NBA’s top net-rating. He gets better every season and increased his playmaking post-All-Star break as the Celtics sped toward the No. 1 seed in the East.

MVP odds: +8000

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards

2023-24 stats: 26.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.3 spg, 46.5% FG, 37.4% 3PT, 83.1% FT

It’s Edwards’ best season with career highs in points and assists per game and field goal, 3-point and free throw shooting percentages. It’s also Minnesota’s best season in two decades. Like Tatum, Edwards does so many things at a high level but he falls just on the outside of the main MVP race. (The prior five players are the only ones with odds still listed at every major book.) He is one of six players who have qualified for MVP votes to average at least 26 points, five rebounds and five assists this season, and the Timberwolves still have a chance at the No. 1 seed in the West.

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