NFL playoff picture: Packers leap into NFC field, Chiefs squander shot at lead for top seed

Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the duration of the week (through Thursday's game or Saturday's, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 7.

Here's where things stand with Week 13 of the 2023 season underway:

NFC playoff picture

1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2), NFC East leaders: They still own the best record in the league, but Sunday's convincing loss to the Niners could leave them exposed − starting with the head-to-head tiebreaker ceded to San Francisco. But even more concerning? A loss at Dallas in Week 14 will knock Philly out of first place in the division and well down the conference ladder. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants

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2. San Francisco 49ers (9-3), NFC West leaders: Sunday's resounding win at Lincoln Financial Field puts them squarely in the chase for home-field advantage and a first-round bye, the Niners now merely having to match the Eagles' regular-season record. The Niners' superior record (7-1) in NFC games also keeps them ahead of the Lions. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams

3. Detroit Lions (9-3), NFC North leaders: They hung on to win in New Orleans on Sunday, increasing their margin for error ahead of second-place Minnesota in the divisional race. And the Lions continue to quietly lurk behind the teams juuust ahead of them. Remaining schedule: at Bears, vs. Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-6), NFC South leaders: They outlasted the Jets and opened up a one-game lead in the division thanks to New Orleans' loss. A 3-0 record in NFC South games also gives Atlanta a meaningful advantage at this juncture. Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints

5. Dallas Cowboys (9-3), wild card No. 1: First place in the NFC East is now in sight. They won their 14th consecutive home game Thursday night, outlasting Seattle 41-35. Dallas solidified its hold on its current position – which will likely afford a matchup with a not-so-daunting NFC South champ in the wild-card round. Yet Philadelphia's loss means the Cowboys can claim first place in their division by beating the Eagles in Week 14 – and that would mean playing at least one postseason game at home for a team that's excelled at AT&T Stadium. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders

6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6), wild card No. 2: They could still make a run at the NFC North given both dates with Detroit are ahead. But Minnesota needs to come back from its bye prepared to deal with a bevy of teams ready to challenge for this spot. Remaining schedule: at Raiders, at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions

7. Green Bay Packers (6-6), wild card No. 3: They took out the Chiefs on Sunday night – with some help from the officials? – to jump into the final playoff spot, which started Sunday in Seattle and was temporarily held by the Rams before the Pack swiped it. Green Bay's Week 9 win over the Matthew Stafford-less Rams is decisive at this point in time. Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears

8. Los Angeles Rams (6-6), out of playoff field: They beat Cleveland on Sunday – a win that tied LA with Seattle (6-6), a team the Rams have already swept and consequently overtook. The loss at Lambeau Field earlier this year could haunt them until the bitter end. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Commanders, vs. Saints, at Giants, at 49ers

9. Seattle Seahawks (6-6), out of playoff field: That's four defeats in their past five outings following Thursday's heartbreaker against Dallas. Dropping both games to the Rams could be a lingering issue. And the schedule only gets tougher the next two weeks for Seattle, which may be in an unrecoverable nosedive. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Eagles, at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7), out of playoff field: They're in the wild-card chase but probably a bigger factor in the NFC South race, just a game behind Atlanta. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, at Packers, vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers

11. New Orleans Saints (5-7), out of playoff field: They're in the wild-card chase but probably a bigger factor in the NFC South race, just a game behind Atlanta. Schedule ain't bad ... though QB Derek Carr's mounting injuries certainly appear to be. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Giants, at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons

AFC playoff picture

1. Miami Dolphins (9-3), AFC East leaders: Another blowout of a bad team Sunday, the Fins crushing the Washington Commanders 45-15. But this win moves them atop the conference standings, Miami's record in AFC games (6-2) giving them the advantage over idle Baltimore. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills

2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3), AFC North leaders: They're 6-3 against the AFC and soon to face some very tough conference opponents during a grueling stretch drive. Remaining schedule: vs. Rams, at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3), AFC South leaders: Kansas City's loss bumps them up going into Monday night's date with Cincinnati. The Jags earned an important split with Houston in Week 12, opening some breathing room atop the division. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Browns, vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans

4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), AFC West leaders: Had they won at Green Bay on Sunday night, then the reigning champs would have climbed atop the AFC ladder. Instead, the loss drops them here – at least for the time being. A 6-1 record in AFC games and wins over Miami and Jacksonville keep K.C. well positioned to play a sixth consecutive AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. None of the teams left on the schedule currently has a winning record. Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5), wild card No. 1: Bad defeat to Arizona and perhaps an even more worrisome loss with QB Kenny Pickett's ankle injury. Still, they remain ahead of Cleveland based on their superior record in division games and over Indianapolis based on a slim lead in the common opponents tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

6. Cleveland Browns (7-5), wild card No. 2: New QB Joe Flacco couldn't notch a win against the Rams, one that would have moved Cleveland up the conference standings. But at least the Browns' 39-38 win at Indianapolis in Week 7 continues to serve them well. Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals

7. Indianapolis Colts (7-5), wild card No. 3: An overtime escape in Nashville keeps them here ... and the the upcoming schedule might ensure they don't drop. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Steelers, at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

8. Houston Texans (7-5), out of playoff field: They've already lost to Indy and also have a worse divisional record than the Colts. However mounting issues in the AFC North seem to bode well for them. Houston did wax Pittsburgh earlier this year, so a tie with the Steelers would be advantageous. Remaining schedule: at Jets, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts

9. Denver Broncos (6-6), out of playoff field: Their five-game heater came to an end in Houston, where they also lost a key tiebreaker. At least Denver has already beaten Buffalo ... and should be equipped to handle most of its remaining opponents. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders

10. Buffalo Bills (6-6), out of playoff field: Even the bye week felt like a loss, what with the legal issues now attached to OLB Von Miller. Not the way you want to start the upcoming doubleheader against Kansas City and Dallas. Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Cowboys, at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.