Current:Home > MarketsHow climate change is raising the cost of food-LoTradeCoin
How climate change is raising the cost of food
View Date:2024-12-23 19:10:12
Agricultural experts have long predicted that climate change would exacerbate world hunger, as shifting precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures make many areas of the world unsuitable for crops. Now, new research suggests a warming planet is already increasing the price of food and could sharply drive up inflation in the years to come.
A working paper by researchers at the European Central Bank and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research analyzed historic price fluctuations along with climate data to figure out how that has affected inflation in the past, and what those effects mean for a warming world.
The upshot: Climate change has already pushed up food prices and inflation over all, the researchers found. Looking ahead, meanwhile, continued global warming is projected to increase food prices between 0.6 and 3.2 percentage points by 2060, according to the report.
To be sure, where inflation will fall within that range will depend on how much humanity can curtail emissions and curb the damage from climate change. But even in a best-case scenario in which the entire world meets Paris Agreement climate targets, researchers expect food inflation to rise.
"[I]nflation goes up when temperatures rise, and it does so most strongly in summer and in hot regions at lower latitudes, for example the global south," Maximilian Kotz, the paper's first author and a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in a statement.
How much could food prices rise?
Global warming affects crops in several ways. Yields of corn, a staple crop in many warm countries, fall dramatically after the temperature reaches about 86 degrees Fahrenheit. A 2021 study by NASA researchers found that global corn yields could drop by 24% by the end of the century. Rice and soybeans — used mostly for animal feed — would also drop but less precipitously, according to a recent report from the Environmental Defense Fund said.
- Are Canadian wildfires under control? Here's what to know.
- New York City air becomes some of the worst in the world
- Another major insurer is halting new policy sales in California
Poor countries feel the effects of high prices more, but all nations will be affected by climate-fueled inflation, the researchers said.
In just over a decade, inflation is projected to increase U.S. food prices by 0.4 to 2.6 percentage points in a best-case scenario in which emissions are lowered, Kotz told CBS MoneyWatch in an email. In a high-emission scenario, the inflation impact could be as high as 3.3 percentage points by 2035, and up to 7 percentage points in 2060.
"Impacts from other factors such as recessions, wars, policy, etc., may obviously make the actual future inflation rates different, but these are the magnitudes of pressure which global warming will cause, based on how we have seen inflation behave in the past," he said.
In the two decades before the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. food prices rose about 2% to 3% a year, although annual food inflation surged to 11% last summer. In other words, a 3% jump in food prices from climate change is a significant hit for nations like the U.S. that strive to keep the annual rate of inflation at about 2%.
The future is now
In the European Union, climate change is already pushing up food costs, the researchers found. Last summer, repeated heat waves dried up the continent's rivers, snarling major shipping routes and devastating farmland.
The resulting crop failures in Europe have occurred at the same time that Russia's war in Ukraine has driven up the price of wheat. Weather extremes pushed up European food prices by an additional 0.67 percentage points, the researchers found. In Italy, the rising cost of staples has caused the price of pasta to soar.
"The heat extremes of the 2022 summer in Europe is a prominent example in which combined heat and drought had widespread impacts on agricultural and economic activity," they wrote.
- In:
- Climate Change
- Inflation
- Drought
veryGood! (81)
Related
- Spurs coach Gregg Popovich had a stroke earlier this month, is expected to make full recovery
- Coach parent Tapestry buying Capri, owner of Michael Kors and Versace, in $8.5 billion deal
- Family sues Georgia doctor after baby was decapitated during delivery, lawsuit alleges
- Bill Maher Ken-not with Barbie fighting the patriarchy: 'This movie is so 2000-LATE'
- Keke Palmer Says Ryan Murphy “Ripped” Into Her Over Scream Queens Schedule
- Vehicle strikes 3, fatally injuring 1 in service area of Los Angeles car dealership, official says
- Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith to retire in 2024
- Satellite images show utter devastation from wildfires in Maui
- Could trad wives, influencers have sparked the red wave among female voters?
- Chris Tucker announces 'Legend Tour,' his first stand-up comedy tour in over a decade
Ranking
- The ancient practice of tai chi is more popular than ever. Why?
- Inflation got a little higher in July as prices for rent and gas spiked
- Subway offered free subs for life if you changed your name to 'Subway'. 10,000 people volunteered.
- Batiste agrees to $2.5 million settlement over dry shampoo. How to claim your part.
- Kentucky woman seeking abortion files lawsuit over state bans
- Top Louisiana doctor leaving state over anti-LGBTQ legislation: Why would you want to stay?
- Twitter-turned-X CEO Linda Yaccarino working to win back brands on Elon Musk’s platform
- Barbie-approved outdoor gear for traveling between worlds
Recommendation
-
Young Black and Latino men say they chose Trump because of the economy and jobs. Here’s how and why
-
Robbie Robertson, lead guitarist and songwriter of The Band, dies at 80
-
Financial adviser who stole from client with dementia, others, sent to prison
-
Bill Maher Ken-not with Barbie fighting the patriarchy: 'This movie is so 2000-LATE'
-
What does the top five look like and other questions facing the College Football Playoff committee
-
Illinois Gov. Pritzker unveils butter cow and the state fair’s theme: ‘Harvest the Fun’
-
China is edging toward deflation. Here's what that means.
-
Russia intercepts drones heading for Moscow for the second straight day